Madagascar
Malagasy presidential stalemate heats up

Misanet.com / IPS, 5 April - The economic toll on the Indian Ocean island nation Madagascar grew this week as a stalemate between rival presidents, incumbent Didier Ratsiraka (67) and challenger Marc Ravalomanana (52) continued. Up to 20,000 jobs have been lost as shops closed due to lack of supplies, other businesses teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, and industries shut down, unable to acquire raw materials or export their finished products.

Ratsiraka has tightened a two-month-old blockade of the capital Antananarivo, controlled by Ravalomanana, by blowing up two more highway bridges since last weekend in an effort to starve out what he considers his usurper. 

The World Bank estimates that the political crisis, now in its fifth month, is costing Madagascar 12 million US dollars a month. Additional 80,000 jobs may be lost if the dispute is not settled, beyond which few jobs will be available to lose, says the bank.

Ravalomanana, a prosperous businessperson and populist leader, proclaimed himself president in January after claiming he received 52 percent of the vote in Dec 16's presidential election. Ratsiraka cites the national election commission's report that neither candidate received the required 50 percent of the vote. He is demanding a run-off election.

The Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and the United Nations also want a run-off election. Both bodies sent mediation committees to talk to the rivals, but left the island without securing any agreement. This week, another delegation, from the European Commission, called for Ratsiraka to lift the blockade of Antananarivo for humanitarian reasons.

Ravalomanana called a general strike in January, and the popular presumptive president's call was heeded. After securing the capital and installing his cabinet, Ravalomanana called off the strike last month, but the seeds for the current economic crisis, now fuelled by the capital blockade, were sewn.

Though Ratsiraka cannot return to the capital, he controls his hometown port of Toamasina, where most of the island's goods are received. By forbidding shipments to Antananarivo, he has dried up fuel supplies in the capital, and shuttered stores. Taxis are parked idly along quiet streets, where last month lively rallies supporting Ravalomanana were held daily.

- We are hoarding kerosene for backup generators if the power goes off, says a hospital matron quoted in the capital newspaper Midi Madagaskara, which supports Ravalomanana. Food, candles and other basic supplies are also reportedly being hoarded, and a parallel market is thriving as if the city were under siege.

In an effort to outmanoeuvre the blockade, Ravalomanana supporters this week took over the port town of Manakara, 400 kilometres southwest of Antananarivo in the Fianarantsoa province. 

After a brief skirmish that resulted in the death of one soldier, the Ravalomanana faction confined the provincial governor, Phillipe Emilson, a Ratsiraka supporter, to the governor's mansion. Surrounded by loyal police, Emilson refuses to resign his office, though he no longer controls the province.

The governor's situation is similar to Ratsiraka's, who controls a key port, but not the capital city or a majority of the country.

Ratsiraka still commands supporters capable of carrying out his will in violent fashion. When Ravalomanana took over Fianarantsoa province, a bridge was dynamited at Natinafotsy, halfway between the capital and the port at Manakara from which relief supplies were to be secured. 

This followed the destruction of a bridge at Miandriavazo, cutting off the highway from Antananarivo and the western port of Morondava on the opposite side of the island, which was also to be utilised for supplies. Madagascan National Radio reported shipments of fuel are stockpiling at Morondava, with no way to truck them to the capital. 

In such a manner has the political chess game continued, with both contenders hoping to outmanoeuvre his opponent with a decisive checkmate, only to be hit by a countermeasure resulting in stalemate.

Meanwhile, in a move that signals a high-tech spin on political coups d'etat, the charismatic Ravalomanana has launched a web site, in French, featuring the self-proclaimed election victor posing handsomely, while a banner unfurls with the legend: "Viva President Marc Ravalomanana." His opponent, a former military man, is referred to not as president but as "Admiral Ratsiraka."

With six years of economic advancement effectively negated by the current presidential impasse, it will take more than Internet public relations to keep what has been a generally peaceful political crisis from turning volatile.

- Without a runoff election, or failing that a national referendum to show public acceptance of his presidency, Ravalomanana will never be the legitimate ruler of Madagascar, states a Southern Africa diplomat posted in the Indian Ocean island nation. The international community cannot recognise leadership by coup, the diplomat says.

Jason Ndaba, a South African aid worker who is monitoring a growing humanitarian crisis in the country, says, "If Ravalomanana truly believes he has the people's support, he has no reason to avoid a run-off election, even if he sincerely feels he was the victor of the first election." He says Ravalomanana "has nothing to lose and a lot to gain: the end of the capital blockade, international recognition. He's already going to have a difficult time because the presidential fight has wrecked the economy of the nation he expects to run."

By James Hall, IPS

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