Madagascar
Neither Malagasy govt fully operational

Misanet.com / IPS, 14 March - Reports that this Indian Ocean island nation is somehow functioning with two governments following a contested presidential election are contradicted by the reality that neither government is fully operational. "The incumbent president is holed up at the port Tamatave, his home power base, and the presumptive president is riding popular support in the capital Antananarivo, but neither is in charge," says a diplomat connected with a UN delegation.

UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan sent a delegation to Madagascar to find a way forward from the post-election impasse. Neither the United Nations nor the Organisation of African Unity recognises the government of self-proclaimed president Marc Ravalomanana, who now resides in the capital with a full cabinet, including a respected general, Jules Mamizara, as his defence minister. 

But neither organisation cares to counter popular sentiment by backing incumbent president Didier Ratsiraka, who seeks to run the country from Madagascar's second city, Tamatave. Ratsiraka declared Tamatave to be Madagascar's new capital with the same presumptiveness, observers say, of Ravalomanana announcing a new, albeit unelected government.

Ravalomanana says he was the winner of the 16 December presidential election, while Ratsiraka says the polling was flawed, and he wants a run-off. The United Nations' agreement with the incumbent is not based on their reading of the election results. The UN delegation's message is that a final poll will put to rests all doubts, and earns for Ravalomanana, if he wins, the international recognition his administration requires.

Five of Madagascar's six provincial governors back the incumbent, and their support is not likely to change until a final polling is taken. "Without air-tight ballot box proof, Ravalomanana will remain a popular upstart, an illegitimate president, and he will be pursued by worries that he came to power by a coup," says an aide to Amara Essy, OAU Secretary General, upon his arrival in Antananarivo on a fact-finding mission. 

In press interviews, Essy criticised Ravalomanana's self-proclamation as president, saying the act offset in world opinion the moral high ground Ravalomanana had enjoyed as the presumed winner of the popular vote.

In the first signs of serious trouble growing from the impasse, Ratsiraka supporters have mounted a siege campaign against the capital city by setting up roadblocks stopping supplies from entering Antananarivo. 

The nation's army has scrupulously followed a neutral stance since the election dispute began. This has worked to Ravalomanana's advantage as he set up his rival government within ministerial buildings. But as the city's industry collapses, and residents face food and fuel shortages resulting from the blockade, the military may be forced to take action against the roadblocks.

Both Ravalomanana and his defence secretary were temporarily prevented from entering their offices by troops this week, according to local press reports. But other reports say 200 senior military officers have pledged their support to Ravalomanana.

For the past week, a "contact group" from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) has been in the country speaking with both parallel governments. Meeting with the press, the team's leader, Antonio Monteiro, the former president of Cape Verde, said Ratsiraka's public silence - the incumbent president has said little about the crisis, in contrast to Ravalomanana - has not meant a change of position or tactics. 

Monteiro conceded that Ravalomanana's team is so confidently entrenched in their new government, they see no need for another election. Some of Ravalomanana's cabinet members are growing bitter that the international community is not recognising their government, a reluctance that Deputy Prime Minister Narisoa Rajaonarivony says shows tacit support for Ratsiraka.

As another key date draws near, 12 June, when a spectacular total eclipse of the sun is expected to sweep across Madagascar in an arc that concludes at the Zambia-Zimbabwe border, the views of another segment of the international community is of growing concern: the tourist trade. For a year, the nations in the eclipse's path have been marketing the event, and major hotels have been booked since 2001.

Tourism industry sources are not talking numbers, but they concede that if the election crisis is not resolved soon, less than three months before the celestial event, cancellations for hotels and arriving cruise ships are "inevitable".

- No one is going to come to a country whose capital city is under siege from blockades, said one tourism industry source, a tour guide, and "which has two governments and a divided army, so you don't know who is making decisions and who will ensure safety."

What if a final decisive ballot does not take place? If Ravalomanana's support continues, if his government continues to function - the Treasury is paying civil servants, which are back on the job - and if Ratsiraka's supporters do not grow violent, then a new tact may be required. The OAU or UN may broker a deal to get Ratsiraka out of the country, after which a nation-wide referendum to approve Ravalomanana's government would be held.

- The presidential crisis has to be resolved according to the law, either through a runoff election or a referendum, says political columnist Abel Soler. "It is the only way the new government will become legitimate, and obtain international recognition."

By James Hall, IPS

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