Madagascar
Ravalomanana gaining upper hand in Madagascar

afrol News, 5 March - Self-proclaimed Malagasy "President" Marc Ravalomanana yesterday installed his freshly appointed cabinet in the government offices of the capital, Antananarivo. President Didier Ratsiraka slowly seems to be loosing out in the power struggle, as the martial law he proclaimed last week is not respected and the military does nothing to hinder Ravalomanana's seizure of power. Ratsiraka is reported to have named a "rival capital" on Madagascar.

The military indeed is seen as a key factor in the outcome of the conflict in Madagascar, whether it decides to take any action or not. The Malagasy army has proclaimed its neutrality and, although it has not moved to do anything, both sides may claim this is a proof it has chosen side. If Ratsiraka remains the lawful Malagasy President, it should have prevented mass action during under martial law and Ravalomanana's takeover of government buildings. If Ravalomanana is President - yesterday, he also declared himself chief commander of the armed forces - the military should follow his orders.

A possible clash was avoided on Sunday, when Antananarivo citizens had built barricades throughout the weekend to hinder troops loyal to Ratsiraka from entering the capital to enforce martial law. The troops withdrew, but their mere presence indicated a split within the military. 

Meanwhile, "President" Marc Ravalomanana is gaining more and more control of the situation, while President Didier Ratsiraka, from his hideout in the east of the island, slips into isolation. Regional governors supporting Ratsiraka today announced they wanted to set up a rival capital in the eastern port of Tamatave, a Ratsiraka stronghold, and re-establish Ratsiraka's cabinet there. How this cabinet was to achieve funding, civil servants, offices and logistical support however remains unclear. Also the constitutional base remained dubious. 

The latest political move by Ratsiraka is seen as 'strategic positioning' ahead of a visit from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) on Wednesday. The OAU is sending a "contact group" to Madagascar to try to resolve the deepening political crisis. In a move to further isolate Antananarivo, Ratsiraka's supporters have set up barricades around the Tamatave and Majungato ports, cutting off the capital's fuel supplies. Already residents of the capital are feeling the fuel shortages, according to reports.

Ravalomanana, on the other hand, is currently engaged in making the civil servants and the military accepting his new cabinet. On Monday, Ravalomanana's "Prime Minister" Jacques Sylla completed his new cabinet by appointing a high-profile general, Jules Mamizara, as his Minister of Defence. The move proved the "President's" claims he had sympathy within the military. Ravalomanana himself told the BBC he had the support of 80% of the armed forces. 

Moving into government offices yesterday and today, Ravalomanana's cabinet will be the only political authority in Madagascar effectively functioning. President Ratsiraka's government had left the capital, where Ravalomanana has wide support and is also mayor, weeks ago, following the general strike and daily pro-Ravalomanana manifestations. 

On moving into government offices Ravalomanana stated civil servants who have been on strike for the past five weeks were ready to go back to work under his new administration. The strikes had been in favour of Ravalomanana's claim on the Presidency. With a central administration under Ravalomanana's control functioning, President Ratsiraka's isolation would be close to complete.

Ravalomanana's next move obviously is to demand the international recognition of him as the Malagasy Head of State and his cabinet. His party, Tiako i Madagasikara, yesterday demanded the international community finally should recognise the "victory of the Malagasy people." The President, only called Admiral Ratsiraka by the party, had lost credibility by his attempted coup d'état on Sunday (i.e. the troops moving towards the capital to enforce martial law). Obviously, if civil servants go back to work, Ravalomanana's government would be the only one able to negotiate with the international community.

While Ravalomanana seems to be gaining full control of the situation in the capital, concerns remain about the situation in the countryside. Madeleine Ramaholimihaso, heading the independent election observers giving support to Ravalomanana's claim he won over 50 percent of the 16 December presidential elections, yesterday repeated these concerns. "The biggest fear now is for [Ravalomanana's] opposition party supporters in the north of the island. It is easier to monitor activity in the capital, but one cannot say the same about the more rural areas," Ramaholimihaso said.

Tiako i Madagasikara agrees to Ramaholimihaso's concerns, claiming "the situation is alarming" in these areas. Ratsiraka's regime was "terrorising the population" and launching "incentives of racial hatred" to divide the islanders, it stated. The party proposed this situation would not be tolerated for a long time, keeping in mind the "appointment of the Minister of Defence." Loyal troops should be posted where the population was "most vulnerable" to Ratsiraka’s attacks, the party held.

Sources: Tiako-i-Madagasikara, Malagasy govt., press reports and afrol archives 

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