Nigeria 
Obasanjo to win disputed Nigerian poll

afrol News, 21 April - As most votes have been counted, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo looks set to win the country's presidential poll in the first round. There are however growing indications the vote may have been rigged, causing massive opposition protest.

As around 70 percent of the votes have been counted, President Obasanjo has taken a substantial lead in the presidential poll. At this stage of counting, between 60 and 65 percent of the votes are said to have been for the incumbent President, indicating he will win outright.

The President's principal rival, Muhammadu Buhari from All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), is set to receive between one forth and one third of the vote, according to updates from the Independent National Election Commission (INEC). No other candidate reaches even five percent of the votes.

If these are to become the final results, the presidential elections will be concluded in only one voting round - against all predictions. Most observers had expected a rather even vote between Mr Obasanjo and Mr Buhari; both around 30-40 percent of the votes.

However, most opposition parties have already protested against the preliminary results presented by INEC, alleging massive rigging through the use of government machinery. Mr Buhari's campaign spokesman, Sam Nda-Isai, today directed his accusations directly against the INEC, claiming they were responsible for rigging the votes in favour of the incumbent President.

Mr Nda-Isai told the press his party, the ANPP, would not organise protests, but "if the people feel cheated, they will protest themselves." Police and troops have already been deployed across major cities in the country to prevent anticipated riots after the ANPP last week urged "mass action" by its supporters if they thought the vote had been rigged.

The accusations forwarded by ANPP and other opposition parties seem to be based on a growing amount of evidence against the election commission. Election observers for example had documented that statistics presented by INEC concerning last week's legislative elections must have been rigged. The commission had reported a turnout of 98 percent in areas where an election boycott had been organised.

Especially in the oil-rich but turmoil-ridden province Niger Delta, INEC has lost credibility among independent election observers. Here, resistance to the central government is strong and a boycott has been organised during this and last week's elections. Nonetheless, INEC reports a record turnout and more than 90 percent of the voted for President Obasanjo.

While the opposition is protesting what they understand as massive poll rigging, President Obasanjo's ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) celebrates its three victories; in last week's legislative elections and in yesterday's presidential and local elections. The party claims that no rigging would have been necessary given its massive popularity.

So far, unless Nigerians will riot against what they believe is poll rigging, the triple elections in Africa's most populous country in general have been successful. Only local irregularities have been documented and there have barely been outbreaks of violence.

Unless major irregularities are later documented, these elections seem to consolidate democracy in Nigeria. In fact, this year's polls have been the first in Nigeria's history where a civilian government is to hand over power to another civilian government.

Four years ago, Mr Obasanjo was elected president in a poll that ended 15 years of military dictatorships. President Obasanjo has been widely successful in securing the transition to democracy and the introduction of human rights in Nigeria. His administration however was seen to fail in its efforts to rebuild the economy and put an end to ethnic strife.

In so far, these elections were held in a more peaceful manner than anyone expected. Even the rivalry between the Christian southerner Obasanjo and the Muslim northerner Buhari did not cause the religious strife many had feared. The delicate process of making the different stakeholders accepting the election results however still lies ahead of President Obasanjo.

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