Malawi
Malawian maize production forecast revised downwards

afrol News, 29 April - The anticipated end to years of drought and food deficit in Malawi seems to have been thwarted. Rainfall activity over the country is subsiding, signalling an end to the rainy season, and the government subsequently has revised its maize production forecast downwards.

Despite the fact that most parts of the country have experienced normal cumulative rainfall amounts (between 75 and 125 percent of the expected rainfall) by the end of March, the onset of the rains was late, there were dry spells and a low rainfall was experienced between end of January and early March 2003. This did not produce a necessary stability for optimal crops.

The Malawian Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Food Security has now released its second round crop production forecasts, taking into account the season's climatic conditions. Maize production forecasts thus have been revised downwards from 2,032,271 tons in the first round to 1,900,975 tons, representing a drop of 6 percent.

Crop estimation exercises are conducted three times per year. During the first round, estimates are based on farmers' planting intentions, as most have not yet planted by the time the exercise is done. The second round is based on actual area planted, crop condition and other factors that affect crop production. This forecast is therefore an improvement on the first round estimates.

Maize is the country's major staple food, grown and consumed everywhere in Malawi. According to a household survey conducted in 1997/98, maize contributes about 73 percent of the total kilocalorie intake in Malawi and is therefore the major determinant of food security in the country. The current production estimate is just about enough to meet the maize requirement.

Also the rice production forecast has been revised downwards by 17 percent to 86,882 tons in the second round. This is attributed to drops in both area planted and yield by 8 percent and 10 percent respectively. Production of the drought resistant crop cassava, on the other hand, has increased by 8 percent to 1,774,196 tons in the second round.

While production is revised downwards, the Lilongwe authorities seem well prepared to meet another year with possible food deficits. Government maize stocks held by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) remain high and are estimated at about 250,000 tons. Subsidised maize sales by the NFRA have assured low prices on Malawian markets.

The food security outlook for next year thus in general seems far more positive than one year ago, observes the US agency Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Reports from the field, especially where harvesting has started, had also shown that "the food security situation at the household level has improved greatly as households start consuming food from the recent harvest."

However, according to the estimates, there were pockets throughout the country where households will be food insecure as a result of prolonged dry spells that resulted in yield reduction. "This improved household food security situation may be short lived as the harvest is not expected to last long," FEWS warns.

Overall though, the situation was much better than at the same time last year. "The bottom line is that wide scale food aid will not be required since the main problem facing the country now is chronic food insecurity as a result of the low rural incomes, declining productivity and deepening poverty," FEWS says. "This is more of a developmental problem rather than as a result of the failure of the current harvest."

 

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