Mali
Ivorian crisis halts Malian grain price hike

afrol News, 22 April  - The expected hike in grain prices in Mali, following poor harvests in the West African region, have not come true. Imports from Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire - a product of free trade in the region - are keeping prices under control and are averting famine and poverty.

Grain prices have been on the rise throughout the West African subregion for the past three years or so, in some cases, reaching record levels. A post-harvest increase in prices would have been understandable given the poor or average crop performance in both Mali and most neighbouring countries.

However, this line of reasoning is no longer the rule as far as Malian grain markets are concerned, the US agency Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) today notes. For this reason, FEWS Mali and the Agricultural Market Watch Organisation (OMA) have been attempting to explain recent trends on grain markets by regularly tracking market movements in a new report.

This year, despite preliminary forecasts predicting tighter grain supplies on domestic markets and skyrocketing prices, market supplies are currently ample and prices have been inching downward since early February.

- These plentiful market supplies of coarse grains in particular are the result of crossborder trade and/or imports from neighbouring countries such as Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire, FEWS concludes. The 2002/03 crop year was a good one in Burkina Faso and the socio-political crisis in Côte d'Ivoire has diverted a sizeable portion of their grain harvest in the northern reaches of that country to markets in Mali.

Price levels at the beginning of the 2002/03 marketing year (November 2002 through October 2003) were even higher than in 2001/02. This phenomenon was basically attributed to a combination of climatic factors affecting the 2002/03 growing season, small carryover inventories for 2002/03 and the rebuilding of government, community and private grain inventories. However, a closer examination shows prices rising at a somewhat slower pace than at the same time last year, with the upward movement in prices beginning to taper off.

- Naturally, grain markets will feel the effects of seasonal price swings, but this year's prices are not expected to overtake last year's peak price levels and the fear of a grain shortage is unwarranted, the FEWS report concludes.

Supplies on grain markets are more plentiful than at the same time last year. According to the OMA, the aggregate volume of all types of grains placed on wholesale markets in regional capitals over the period from November of 2002 to January of this year is somewhere around 39,010 tons, up by 18 percent from the same three months of last year.

Ivorian crisis
The socio-political crisis ravaging Côte d'Ivoire since 19 September last year has significantly affected trade with other countries within the West African region. Mali is among the countries which have been especially hard hit by this state of affairs, with 70 percent of its imports and exports arriving by sea, via Abidjan harbour.

Moreover, northern Côte d'Ivoire is among that country's leading production zones for maize. "However, the current crisis has, to Mali's advantage, cut off trade between the north and south," the FEWS report notes.

In a normal year, Malian grain imports from Côte d'Ivoire generally commence at the beginning of the lean period (in May or June) while, this year, imports have been flowing in since the beginning of the marketing year back in November, and in larger volumes than in previous years.

- Institutional procurements for rebuilding Mali's National Security Stock beginning in November, last year, were a godsend for diverting foreign maize production to markets in Mali, the FEWS report says. Consumer demand in Mali also drove traders to flood Malian markets with maize from Côte d'Ivoire. Most government procurements to rebuild the country's national security stock involved grain imported from Burkina Faso and northern Côte d'Ivoire through crossborder trade. "All this helped ease pressure on domestic grain availability while, at the same time, strengthening the state of supplies on Malian markets," the report concludes.

Based on current trends in prices and market supplies, Mali was not expected to face a food shortage, the agencies now conclude. "In fact, grain traders agree that market supplies should remain adequate up to this year's lean period." At least for Malian peasants, the Ivorian crisis has turned into something positive.
 

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