Madagascar
Ravalomanana heading for victory in Madagascar

afrol News, 15 June - Troops supporting President Marc Ravalomanana have captured two of Madagascar's main ports, thus lifting the three-month blockade of the capital, Antananarivo. Meanwhile, ex-President Didier Ratsiraka and his family have arrived France, raising speculations he had fled into exile and Ravalomanana troops prepare to take Ratsiraka's Tamatave stronghold.

Ravalomanana's Antananarivo government troops yesterday "liberated" Madagascar's second and third harbours, Majunga (Mahajanga) and Tuléar (Toliara), without armed struggle. The port cities, respectively in the north-west and south-west of the island, had been under the control of governors supporting Ratsiraka in the six-month power struggle and were key elements in the blockade strangling the capital. President Ravalomanana yesterday announced on national radio that the blockade now was over. 

According to reports posted on the Antananarivo government's web site, "soldiers supporting Admiral Didier Ratsiraka did not make any resistance" as pro-Ravalomanana troops entered the port cities. In Majunga, the source said, governor Razafindehibe had fled as troops were approaching. In Tuléar, pro-Ratsiraka General Ratongason Aimé "had ordered his soldiers to withdraw and not to answer enemy fire." Also the Majunga governor had escaped.

Alain Rajaonarivony, in the Paris-base pro-Ravalomanana organisation Tiako i Madagasikara, reported the troops had been received as liberators in Majunga and Tuléar, where "the population is celebrating." Soldiers of the two rivalling parties had immediately met "to seal the reconciliation" and unite their forces.

Ratsiraka in exile?
Yesterday's "escape" to Paris by ex-President Ratsiraka seems to mark a turning point in the conflict as it is widely interpreted as the strongman going into exile. Ratsiraka arrived in France on "a private visit" aboard a plane provided by the French government together with his wife and daughter.

There is however no confirmation of Ratsiraka seeking exile in France. "I'm going to work in search of the best thing for the Malagasy people and I will come back [to Madagascar]," Ratsiraka was quoted saying by AFP news agency when departing from the Malagasy airport. He however had no meetings scheduled for his stay in France.

Also the French government is vague in its statements concerning Ratsiraka's arrival. The Paris Foreign Office spokesman yesterday confirmed the arrival of Ratsiraka and his family in an Airbus, "chartered by France", but claimed to have no "knowledge" of what Ratsiraka would do on his "private visit" to France. Ratsiraka had "a renewable six-month old visa, renewable, which enables him to come freely."

Asked whether Ratsiraka not indeed had arrived to France to exile himself, the spokesman answered "I do not want to speculate. The only facts which I have are the declarations by Mr. Ratsiraka in Madagascar, before his departure, which do not lead in that direction at all." On the lifting of the blockade, the spokesman could "only congratulate" Ravalomanana's government.

The Antananarivo government is however convinced Ratsiraka has left Madagascar for good; at least according to its messages to the Malagasy people. The "rather unexpected, even surprising departure" came at a time when "Ravalomanana is riding on the crest of a wave". The government-close 'Madagascar Tribune' assumed "the admiral will have decided he had no choice but to leave."

Ravalomanana on decisive offensive
Antananarivo broadcasters have already announced that Ratsiraka's departure means the end of his regime and even of the political crisis in Madagascar. As President Ravalomanana is fast gaining the upper hand, even an ultimate offensive against Tamatave (Toamasina) - the stronghold and headquarters of Ratsiraka's government - is planned. Victory there would indeed impede a return of Ratsiraka.

The 'Madagascar Tribune' quotes Antananarivo government sources saying the preparations for an offensive against Tamatave are already made. In Tamatave, pro-Ratsiraka troops and officials were already realising the battle was lost. "Then the only great operation that remains is that of national reconciliation," the newspaper concludes, taking a quick victory for granted.

Sources: Based on Malagasy govt, Tiako i Madagasikara, press reports and afrol archives 

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