Congo Kinshasa
New eruptions likely in Goma, Congo

Misanet.com / IPS, 28 February - Vulcanologists are warning that the sister volcano to the one that erupted in Congo Kinshasa (DRC) in January could erupt in the coming weeks. "It's possible that there will be an explosion soon because there is already a lot of activity," warns the DRC's leading vulcanologist, Dieudonne Wafulu of the Bukavu Vulcanological Research Centre. 

The heightened activity of Nyamuragira volcano was also noted by scientists from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. "One minute the reading said there was no seismic activity at all, and the next showed dramatic activity," says Dario Tedesco, professor of vulcanology at the University of Naples.

Wafulu hopes the world will pay more attention to their warnings than last time. He published three emergency warnings that Mount Nyiragongo was about to erupt months ahead of the Jan 17 catastrophe and pleaded with the authorities to prepare an evacuation plan. But nobody took any notice. 

When the volcano did finally erupt, everyone was taken by surprise. Molten lava spilled out over the city of Goma, submerging thousands of houses and forcing some half a million terrified residents to run for their lives. 

Wafulu, who has spent the last 16 years studying volcanoes in the region, after studying vulcanology and geophysics in Japan, anticipated the disaster three months in advance.

- In October, we noted earth tremors which triggered rumbling and vibrations in the volcano and black smoke emissions, he recalls. "We made a report, which we sent to the authorities, the aid agencies, the Red Cross - everywhere. They said nothing as usual. I don't know why. It's always been like that. No one pays attention to us."

Two weeks before the eruption, Wafulu issued another report. "On 4 January, there was more earth tremors with practically the same effects as the one in October - more trembling, vibration and fumes. On 8 January, we made a report, which we gave to the Red Cross. They sent it to Geneva and distributed it widely," he says.

A final warning, two days before the disaster also failed to trigger a positive response. Without adequate warning, thousands were left destitute, with nothing more than the clothes on their backs. 

Wafulu's brother's house, in which he lived, was burned to ashes along with all their possessions. They spent four nights sleeping on chairs and tables in a friend's hotel in Gisenyi, Rwanda.

The aid agencies were also ill prepared to deal with the ensuing humanitarian crisis. It took six days for the World Food Programme (WFP) to start issuing emergency food rations because it could not decide which was the best site to do so from. 

Local people and other agencies were unhappy that WFP had 1,000 tonnes of maize, pulses and oil stored in one of their surviving warehouses but refused to give it out for almost a week. WFP's defence is that they did not want to be seen to be encouraging people to return to the city until they knew it was safe from further eruptions.

Wafulu says these problems could easily have been avoided. "They had not prepared plans and these things can't be arranged at the last minute. I had been asking them to prepare an evacuation plan for the city and a committee to organise it for two years. But nothing was finalised. They were still at the beginning so neither the authorities nor the population were prepared for the catastrophe," he says.

But the aid agencies defend their record vigorously. "It's not that we were not aware. There were contingency plans," says WFP spokesperson Laura Melo. "It's a very hard decision to take, to tell people to leave their homes now because you don't know when this thing is going to happen. People are always reluctant to leave their homes, anywhere in the world," she says.

Melo lays the blame at the feet of the local authority, the Rwandan-backed rebels of the Rally for Congolese Democracy. "This is not a decision for the UN to take. These warnings were taken seriously but we can't tell people to leave their homes. It's ultimately the responsibility of the authorities. We can be an advisory body but we don't have any enforcement powers," she says.

Wafulu is surprisingly laid back that all his years of research went to waste. "I can't be angry. It's their problem. What can I do? We worked hard for their safety but they didn't take it seriously and many aid agencies lost their offices. We just did our work. We can't force them," he says.

However, he hopes that people will listen more closely to his next volcano warning. "It is up to them now to change their attitudes. We told them what was going to happen. With the catastrophe they have seen, we hope they will adopt a more positive attitude," he says.

He is hopeful that lessons have been learned. "The population and the authorities are starting to understand that we are serious and the international community has realised that there are competent people in the Congo. Despite the crisis, we still work," he says.

For example, Wafulu has not been paid for the last 10 years. Theoretically, his employer is the Congolese government in the capital, Kinshasa. But the eastern cities of Bukavu and Goma, where he spends his time, are under the control of rebels.

- The rebels also don't pay. We survive by miracles, he laughs. "It's hard but we have started something and we would like to see it through to the end."

Luckily, Nyamuragira is not as dangerous as Nyiragongo because it is further from town. It erupts every one or two years. The last eruption in February 2001 lasted several weeks. It did not threaten the local population because the lava flow descended into the Virunga national park. 

However, there is still a risk as people could be killed and the lava always destroys crops.

By Katy Salmon, IPS

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