Uganda
Museveni believed to win Ugandan election

afrol.com, 11 March - The Ugandan 12 March presidential election seem to become a tight run between incumbent President Yoweri Museveni and candidate Kizza Besigye. President Museveni is however confident in winning, and local and international media believe he will do just that.

- Losing is completely hypothetical. It will not happen, President Museveni told the press at a news conference in Kampala yesterday. Museveni and Besigye have won the support of more than 90 percent of the electorate, according to recent opinion polls, but Museveni is ahead of the opposition's main candidate. 

The New Vision daily, the country's leading newspaper, indicates in its latest poll that Museveni leads with 53 percent, while Besigye is expected to win 39 percent of the vote. A candidate must win with over 50 percent, or a secound round will be held with 30 days, according to the Ugandan Constitution.

The Besigye team however plays down the opinion poll results, saying the conditions they were carried out under were unfortunate. "The poll was carried out immediately after the brutal arrest of a Member of Parliament in the presence of the international community. President Museveni had thereby demonstrated that he would use brutal force if necessary to deny his opposition a fair chance to compete with him," the Besigye team claims.

- Our candidate Museveni will win in a clean election, Bidandi Ssali, President Yoweri Museveni's national task force deputy chairman, yesterday said. Meanwhile, Besigye claimed to "pull out Museveni" while addressing the largest rally in the capital Kampala on Friday. Media observers in Kampala however say Museveni will gain a sufficient majority to give him a straight win.

Besigye campaign, which has posed the first real challenge to Mr Museveni's leadership, has primary focused on corruption and recently also election irregularities. Besigye claims Museveni's administration has lost a total amount of 427.6 billion Ugandan shillings through corruption in government and local government offices between 1995 and 1999, linking corruption to the poverty in his country. Besigye has promised "to fight corruption and abuse of office during his five years tenure of office".

Museveni's popularity is rooted in the overall political stability and economic growth this war-ridden country has experienced since Museveni came to power in 1986. While admitting that corruption, nepotism and embezzlement were still rife within his administration, president Museveni has been able to point at significant development during his presidency, especially within health care, education, rural economy and security - the sectors most important to Ugandans. 

Museveni has been especially successful in gaining support in rural areas, while Besigye almost reaches the poll numbers of Museveni in urban areas. Rural areas have mostly benefited from Museveni's policies - most important being the security issue. Further, decentralisation, liberal agricultural policies, infrastructure, health care and the education sector have improved significantly. Besigye's corruption and democratisation arguments therefore have failed to impress the rural population.

Both sides have reported intimidation and violence by their opponents during the election campaign. A case of reported "murder and torture of Besigye supporters in Busia" made the headlines in Uganda last week, but Museveni's team rapidly denounced this as "false allegations". In a Saturday new release, Museveni's campaign claimed these were "unresearched and unsubstantiated stories which we believe are deliberately aimed at maligning State House."

Also the renown US group Human Rights Watch has reported about violence and intimidation undermining the credibility of Uganda's presidential election. The group documented evidence of how "the Museveni government is trying to win this election by bullying the opposition". It however also documented harassment by Besigye's supporters. 

Background 
The 12 March elections are being held after a referendum in 2000 maintained the "movement political system" as the only system of politics in Uganda and thus upholding the continued suspension of multi-party politics. President Museveni has defended this system within the "African values" argumentation, not so different from the "Asian values" loosing terrain in South East Asia. Museveni however still has a high credibility in the international society for his ability to maintain peace in Uganda after the Obote and Amin dictatorships and following civil wars.

Originally there were up to 20 candidates running for the presidential office but after the screening process instituted in the 1993-1994 constitution, only 7 candidates were nominated, of which 6 remain. Under "the movement system", all candidates are campaigning on individual merits though most are affiliated with either multiparty politics or political organisation. President Museveni (in power since 1986) is campaigning for his second and last term within the new Constitution. Museveni first was elected president in 1996, winning a landslide victory of over 70% of the votes. 

Critics against President Museveni and his "movement system" have however mounted over the last years. The 2000 referendum, which failed to re-introduce a multi-party system, was heavily criticised by the opposition, which called for a boycott. Already then, opposition parties claimed there was no level playing field them during the campaign period and that "the referendum may not be free and fair" (Uganda Law Society). Also the 2001 elections have been criticised by the opposition for not being free and fair. 

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