Kenya
Kenya's succession politics and the threat of renewed violence

afrol News / Kabissa, 12 June - "If nothing can be written about Kenya today without the name of its President Daniel Arap Moi weaving its way into the narrative, it is a testament to the legacy his twenty three years in power has bequeathed Kenya," writes Mutuma Ruteere from the Kenya Human Rights Commission. 

For in those twenty-three years, President Moi has reduced a once proud country into an economic dunghill foraged by his cronies and a political Babel in which the only common language is himself. Even more frightening is his transformation of a peaceful multi-ethnic society into a snakepit where communities are manipulated to believe that their survival depends on the annihilation of others.

Kenya has not yet gone the way of Somalia, Rwanda or Burundi. It still has a largely functioning political infrastructure for controlling ethnic conflict. It might even sound alarmist to suggest the possibility of conflict. That might well be so and violence might not be. But that is largely dependent on the decisions of the regime of President Moi in the next few months.

Kenya is set to go to elections in 2002 with President Moi constitutionally barred from running. Since 1992, when Kenya held its first multiparty elections, politically motivated ‘ethnic violence’ has become the byword for elections. With Moi set to leave the scene and the ruling cabal scared of the possibility of life without power, the entire future of Kenya might be up for the toss.

In 1992 and 1997 Moi used actual violence and the threat of violence to retain power. The orgy of violence left close to 2000 Kenyans dead and thousands displaced. No one was punished and the real truth remains buried in the official rhetoric of ‘building peace’.

Since then, the map of violence and impunity has continued to grow. Close to 40% of the country is now under one form of violence or another. The northern region bordering Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan has become bandit territory. 

With the government focused on containing the activities of opposition politicians and other political challengers, insecurity in these regions has reached the levels of law intensity warfare, pitting rival militias of local political kingpins of the ruling party. With the political instability in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, easy accessibility of arms has transformed the conflict from a political shouting match to a deadly affair.

With the Kenyan economy growing at below zero, the economic collapse has heightened the sense of despair. The uncertainty of whether President Moi will abide by the constitution and retire from politics or will seek to cling on has not helped the situation. With Moi playing a ‘wait-and-see’ game over his exit investments have continued to board up for the possible eventuality.

In the meantime, many of Moi’s close allies, variously implicated in planning violence and wanton corruption are proposing a constitutional manipulation that allows Moi to continue playing a role in Kenyan politics. With Moi back in power, either as president or Prime Minister in a new constitutional arrangement, they will be able to escape accountability for human rights violations. Prosecution of the corrupt and those behind political violence in Kenya, it has been argued, will only lead to further instability and violence. Some supporters and critics of the Moi government have argued that it is time to close the chapter and move on. Time to turn the page, so to speak.

In all this, however, the cries of justice continue unanswered. Closing the chapter may be easy to speak of for those who were not been personally touched by the violence and corruption of the government. But for those who lost relative and property and the millions who have been economically ‘disappeared’ there can never be a ‘closure’. A new chapter will mean addressing their loss and misery.

Kenya is now at the threshold of writing a new constitution. Closing the chapter of corruption and political violence means that the new constitution will not remember this part of Kenya’s past. For those who died under police fire while fighting for a new constitution, a closure without justice is an erasure of their memory and their existence. While a new constitution is a fresh beginning, it is not a forgetting of the past.

The negotiation of the future in Kenya still revolves around Moi. He still controls the machinery of political violence. He has used this machinery to play hostage-politics in the past. Indications are he is ready to use it again to allow himself to escape the reach of accountability. 

Allowing Moi and his allies to escape accountability for instigating ‘ethnic violence’ may buy the silence of his extremist supporters. But will it be justice?

By Mutuma Ruteere, Kenya Human Rights Commission 

© Mutuma Ruteere / Kabissa.    You can contact us at mail@afrol.com