Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau towards political collapse

afrol News, 26 October - Last week's threats against the judiciary and oppositional politicians by President Kumba Yala on Thursday resulted in a motion of no confidence against him. Yala is accused of violating the Constitution and threatening the political stability of the country.

Of the 90 MPs attending to Thursday's extraordinary parliamentary session, 56 supported the motion of no confidence against the President, while 34 deputies from Yala's minority governing party voted in confidence with the President. Four MPs abstained.

Guinea-Bissau has slipped from one political crisis into another over the last years, lately marked by a power struggle between the presidency, the Parliament and the military. While winning most battles, some forcefully, President Yala's line of confrontation has probably narrowed rather than consolidated his legitimacy. His attacks on the judiciary over the last month seem to have been the trigger of the latest crisis.

On 10 September, President Yala dismissed three Supreme Court judges, including the deputy president of the court, Venancio Martins. This move came after the Supreme Court had found that a presidential decree, expelling the Ahmadiyya Muslim group from the country, was unconstitutional. 

In sacking the three judges and appointing new ones, President Yala went far beyond his constitutional rights, according to the Guinea-Bissauan Bar Association, which has filed a suit against him. Under the Constitution, Supreme Court judges are to be appointed by a Higher Council of Magistrates. The president is only to swear the judges in. 

The Parliament, already in its majority against the President, already one month ago sought to respond to this "constitutional crisis" and has since then prepared for Thursday's extraordinary session. The session was to discuss what oppositional politicians label the "systematic violations of the constitution by the president."

Meanwhile, the opposition has only been reinforced in its arguments by further attacks from the presidency. Last week, Yala threatened to "put" 60 percent of "the civil servants on the street," claiming they were corrupt. Further, he was "to through" politicians opposing his proposal "into prison". These statements surely contributed to increase the majority of the motion of no confidence against the President.

The national opposition is gaining force and is ever more decisive to oust Yala from the presidency. Independent Prime Minister Faustino Imbali, whose government was forced on the protesting Parliament by the President in March, has marked its distance to Yala. Ex-Prime Minister Francisco Fadul, in an interview with the Portuguese radio RDP this week, revealed he was taking initiatives to form a new party in response to "Yala's unconstitutional" behaviour. An anti-Yala coalition is rapidly being shaped.

Also the judiciary has put a strong pressure on the presidency. On 25 September, magistrates embarked on a 30-day strike to protest the dismissal of three Supreme Court judges. After having paralysed Bissau courts for one month, the magistrates returned to work on Thursday (25 October). 

Yala is also meeting pressure from abroad. Several UN agencies, including the World Bank and the Security Council, have invested much resources and prestige in bringing political and economic stability to the small, ill-fated West African country, since a military junta ousted dictator Nino Viera from power in May 1999. 

Thus, on Monday, the UN Security Council President Richard Ryan made a statement to the press, calling on all government institutions "to engage in dialogue, to respect the Constitution, and to promote national reconciliation in order to find a way out of the current difficulties." 

President Yala's strongest support is exactly from the international community, which has invested in his personality, being the country's first democratically elected president and a strong counterforce to the military. UN hopes for a national reconciliation, basis for political and economic stability, however do not seem adaptable with Yala's presidency.

According to international observers, the new developments in Guinea-Bissau do not augur well for the country's fragile peace process. The opposition, now composing the parliamentary majority, parts of the government, strong forces within the military and the judiciary, might well unite. 

Guinean historian Leopoldo Amado on Wednesday characterised the situation as "a pre-war state, not a post-war state" in an interview with RDP/África. According to Amado's analysis, the ice is broken regarding unconstitutional means, meaning that the opposition now very well might unite with the military to get rid of Yala. Amado foresees an interregnum of military rule in short future due to Yala's "lack of common sense as Chief of State". 

Sources: Based RDP, UN sources and afrol archives

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