Benin
History repeats itself in Benin elections

Misanet.com / IPS, 9 March - Incomplete results from Benin's 4 March presidential election seem to indicate that history will be repeating itself in this small West African country. Although the partial outcome, announced by the National Autonomous Electoral Commission (CENA), has not yet been confirmed, one thing is for sure: there will be a runoff vote between current president Mathieu Kerekou and his predecessor, Nicephore Soglo. 

According to sources close to the CENA, Kerekou and Soglo, who are in the lead, will be authorised for a second round face-off on either 18 or 25 March, depending on when round one's results have been fully tallied. This scenario, which must be certified by the Constitutional Court, will seem familiar to most Beninese. 

Kerekou and his main rival, technocrat Soglo, faced off twice before during the second round of elections in 1991 and 1996. General Kerekou ruled the country for 17 years as a Marxist dictator prior to the advent of elections. 

With an electorate eager for change, Soglo swept Kerekou from power in Benin's first election in 1991. Five years later, in 1996, Kerekou regained his ascendancy at the polls. In the 2001 elections, both men are running for their second and final term. The stakes for both are high. The second round, which is to take place no fewer than 15 days after official results of the first round are in, will decide if Kerekou stays or Soglo returns. 

Local Beninese political observers offer differing explanations as to why these two men seem to have again triumphed in the elections. "You can analyse this phenomenon in various ways. The first is that no political leader in Benin has ever tried to prepare an heir apparent worthy of the name," explained Aubin Godjo, a legal advisor to the Front of National Organisations Against Corruption (FONAC). 

During the campaign, in fact, Kerekou presented himself as the mentor of all the other candidates. He claims they are his disciples, but was quick to declare that they were not sufficiently prepared to succeed him. Soglo, on the other hand, contends that he did not have time to prepare a successor because he was only in office five years. 

Secondly, the cost of running for president is just too high for some potential candidates. According to Godjo, only those with hefty financial reserves can be viable candidates. The law also requires that those who wish to run need to first pay a five million CFA franc deposit (about 7,000 dollars). 

- More to the point, that means that my uncle, who is well thought of in his village, who's a hard worker and would like to be president, could not because of financial constraints, added Godjo. 

Godjo identified a third reason, which he calls the "favourite son" problem. Beninese people tend to choose their candidates based on ethnic or regional allegiances rather than on the issues. This practice reduces the chances of many potentially excellent candidates. 

Therefore, it seems that the change so fervently advocated by many of the first round's 17 contestants will be postponed, because for the next five years, one of Benin's two political big guns will again preside over the country's destiny. 

But Godjo thinks change can come about in many ways. "They talk about change, but what change? Just because someone has been around for 20 years or more doesn't mean he can't effect change. The reality is that you can be an old hand and still effect change," said Godjo, who thinks that it is not just the faces that need to change but the way the country is governed. 

Martin Assogba, the president of the Association Against Racism, Ethnocentrism, and Regionalism (ALCRER), thinks that no real change will take place in Benin until 2006, when both Kerekou and Soglo will both be 70 and by law, forced into political retirement. 

Even so, it is unlikely that their potential replacements will come out of a vacuum. "Adrien Houngbedji and Bruno Amoussou are people who could, in the long term, be viable successors to Presidents Soglo and Kerekou," Assogba says. Adrien Houngbedji is an opposition candidate and the president of Benin's National Assembly. Bruno Amoussou is the Senior Minister in Charge of Planning and Co-ordination for Governmental Action in the present Kerekou government. 

The two men are in third and fourth place respectively, according to the provisional election results. Like Kerekou and Soglo, Houngbedji and Amoussou also ran in 1996, and obtained the same ranking after that election's first round.

By Nana Rosine Ngangoue, IPS

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