See also: » 24.03.2011 - How cyber-activism lent savvy to North African protests » 27.02.2011 - 84-year-old is new PM in Tunisia » 27.02.2011 - Tunisia PM Ghannouchi resigns » 26.02.2011 - Tunisia police attacks large protest march » 23.02.2011 - Exodus from Libya; foreigners targeted » 05.02.2011 - Tunisia govt improves rights situation » 01.02.2011 - Tunisia freedoms still not secured » 31.01.2011 - EU freezes Tunisia dictator's assets Houlihan's coupons

Finn autentiske matoppskrifter fra hele verden på Verdensmat.no: Gazpacho Børek Kartoffelsalat Taboulé Gulasj Albóndigas Cevapi Rougaille Japrak sarma Zwiebelbrot Klopse Giouvetsi Paella Pljeskavica Pica pau Pulpo a la gallega Flammkuchen Langosj Tapenade Chatsjapuri Pasulj Lassi Kartoffelpuffer Tortilla Raznjici Knödel Lentejas Bœuf bourguignon Korianderchutney Brenneslesuppe Proia Sæbsi kavurma Sardinske calamares

Autentiske matoppskrifter fra hele verden finner du på Verdensmat.no: Réunion Portugal Aserbajdsjan Serbia Tyskland Seychellene Bosnia Spania Libanon Belgia India Kroatia Hellas Italia Ungarn Komorene Georgia Mauritius Østerrike Romania Frankrike

Tunisian protester thanking for the revolution

© Cyberien/Flickr/afrol News

afrol News, 28 January - The massive unrest in Tunisia is already having a strong impact on the economy and growth forecasts for this year have been downscaled. If the situation stabilises soon, a new democratic Tunisia could however see a remarkable recover.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), before the Tunisian revolt, foresaw a further steady growth in the North African country in 2011. The latest IMF forecast for Tunisia foresaw a GDP growth rate of 4.8 percent this year. The UN World Travel Organisation (UNTWO) registered a 6 percent growth in arrivals to North Africa in 2010 and expected the 2011 growth to be at least as massive.

Then came the Tunisian popular uprising, ousting the country's long-time dictator whose only positive contribution had been to assure political and economic stability.

The first economic sector to react negatively was the tourism industry. While the tourism sector only contributes with around 7 percent of the country's GDP, it is among the largest employers in the country. Tunisia's tourism sector is estimated to provide some 350,000 jobs, representing 12 percent of the country's entire workforce.

With the ongoing unrest, almost all tourists have been evacuated from Tunisia and most booked flights have been cancelled or put on ice for the rest of the (northern) winter season. January however is low season in Tunisia, and the important summer high season could still be saved if stability comes quickly.

The second reaction came from abroad. Several rating firms were quick to react. Moody and Standard & Poor's downgraded Tunisia's credit rating already last week, while Fitch put Tunisia "on watch". This means that credits on the international market become more expansive for the new Tunisian government.

Also foreign investors, according to a report rele

Construction works in Tunisia

© World Bank/afrol News

ased by Fitch yesterday, are now putting their investments on hold. Foreign direct investments in Tunisia could fall by up to a third this year, Fitch Rating now predicts.

All in all, the rating firm therefore foresees a large impact on economic growth in Tunisia. It has downscaled its GDP growth forecast for Tunisia from 5 to 2 percent this year. The IMF and the current Tunisian government even believe the unrest could cost Tunisia up to 4.5 percent of its GDP. With an annual population growth of over 1 percent, an expected growth rate of 0.5 to 2 percent comes close to a recession.

But the new negative forecasts for Tunisia's economy during 2011 are very unsure, as also the Fitch report admits. If Tunisia fails to find a stable government during the year - or even worse, if the violence returns and becomes chronic - the outlook would be far too optimistic.

But if the democratic revolution succeeds in establishing a popular and progressive government within short, Tunisia could soon move from recession to boom.

A stable, democratic - although non-Islamic - government in the Arab world be a first-comer, attracting investors, tourists and donors in large volumes. Tunisia's integration into the neighbouring European common market could quickly deepen and a truly democratic government in Tunis could count on massive European assistance.

The course of the Tunisian economy has not yet been set. A deep crisis or a quick recovery depends on the credibility of the government establishing itself in Tunis over the next few weeks and months.

By staff writer

© afrol News

Tweet

Printable version

On the Afrol News front page now

Rwanda

Rwanda succeeds including citizens in formal financial sector afrol News - It is called "financial inclusion", and it is a key government policy in Rwanda. The goal is that, by 2020, 90 percent of the population is to have and actively use bank accounts. And in only four years, financial inclusion has doubled in Rwanda. Read more

Famine warning: "South Sudan is imploding" afrol News - The UN's humanitarian agencies now warn about a devastating famine in Sudan and especially in South Sudan, where the situation is said to be "imploding". Relief officials are appealing to donors to urgently fund life-saving activities in the two countries. Read more

Guinea

Panic in West Africa after Ebola outbreak in Guinea afrol News - Fear is spreading all over West Africa after the health ministry in Guinea confirmed the first Ebola outbreak in this part of Africa. According to official numbers, at least 86 are infected and 59 are dead as a result of this very contagious disease. Read more

Ethiopia

Ethiopia tightens its already strict anti-gay laws afrol News - It is already a crime being homosexual in Ethiopia, but parliament is now making sure the anti-gay laws will be applied in practical life. No pardoning of gays will be allowed in future, but activist fear this only is a signal of further repression being prepared. Read more

Ethiopia

Ethiopia plans Africa's biggest dam afrol News / Africa Renewal - Ethiopia's ambitious plan to build a US$ 4.2 billion dam in the Benishangul-Gumuz region, 40 km from its border with Sudan, is expected to provide 6,000 megawatts of electricity, enough for its population plus some excess it can sell to neighbouring countries. Read more