- After having pushed for African forces to be deployed in support of Somalia's transitional government earlier, Kenya is getting second thoughts over a possible showdown in neighbouring Somalia. Already turning into a second battle field of the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict, a new war in Somalia could trigger hostilities even against a badly prepared Kenya, a growing number of politicians and analysts fear.
There is sufficient proof of the two sides in Somalia mobilising to prepare for a major battle over the future of the country. The transitional government - isolated in Baidoa close to the Ethiopian border - has received troop reinforcements from Somalia's arch rival Ethiopia. With the diplomatic aid of Kenya, Uganda and other East African nations, it is currently bidding for a lifting of the UN's arms embargo, and it has been promised peacekeeping troops from the African Union.
Residents in Baidoa are convinced they will be the next target of the expanding Islamist court movement, based on mobilisation reports from their Mogadishu basis. Here, foreign Islamist fighters have arrived, recruitment centres are being set up to prepare young Somalis for a "holy war" against Baidoa and "the Ethiopians", and large quantities of heavy arms have been smuggled into the country, with the help of Ethiopia's main rival, Eritrea, according to UN reports. Cash is no problem to the Islamist movement, as it has controlled Somalia's finance systems for over a decade.
With Washington being hostile towards the Mogadishu Islamists - some of its members being put in relation with al Qaeda - it may even look like the African Horn is set to become the next scene in the "war against terror". US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at a National Summit on Africa today noted that a potential partner of the US could not "allow terrorists in your midst" when speaking about the Somali conflict. However, "anyone who is willing to fight terrorism" in Somalia could expect Washington's support, she said.
Kenya, which plaid a major role in negotiation a Somali peace and setting up the current transitional government, has so far showed massive support to Baidoa authorities. Nairobi has been the scene of al Qaeda terrorist attacks planned on Somali soil and does not want a radical Islamist neighbour that could be seen to host terrorists.
Policies in Nairobi therefore so far have been trying to stop the spread of Islamism in Somalia by assisting the transitional government and securing African peacekeepers. In this way, Kenyan diplomats hoped, a showdown could be avoided and regional stability would not be threatened.
Now that the Somali conflict has come closer and the Islamists become more powerful - the movement since Monday control the border with Kenya - the mood is changing. A possible conflict involving Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya and Uganda can no longer be ruled out. Even a US intervention does not seem impossible, threatening to turn the Horn into a radicalised and war-torn region like the Middle East.
Emerging voices in the Kenyan debate note that Nairobi is not militarily prepared, nor does it have sufficient intelligence to go hard on the Somali Islamists. Kenya could not afford to stand blindly behind the interests of the US, Ethiopia and Uganda in this emerging conflict, but needed to sort out an arrangement with the allegedly "popular" Islamist movement, several editorials in the Kenyan press pointed out today. Being a "popular movement", the Islamists could not be beaten my foreign armies, and an attack would pose an even greater security risk on Kenya, the dominant opinion was.
Kenyan Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju, speaking today at the UN General Assembly in New York, indicated the change of mood in Nairobi. He asked for the world community's highest possible alert on Somalia, and that the Baidoa transitional government finally was given the international support it had been promised. Asking for the UN arms embargo on Somalia to be lifted, he feared that "neighbouring countries and the international community are soon forced to intervene, even militarily," to stop the Islamist expansion.
But, Mr Tuju urged other countries to support Kenya's approach to avoid this scenario. Nairobi, he revealed, had already opened dialogue with the Islamist militias. Massive humanitarian aid to Somalia, channelled through the transitional government, was also needed to avoid military interventions in the future, he added.
With its "dialogue with the Islamists", Kenya is seen as seeking a middle road in the upcoming conflict, distancing itself from harder stances in Uganda and Ethiopia. Uganda this week said it had 1,000 potential "peacekeepers" ready to be sent immediately to Somalia, whenever there was an approval for their deployment. Ethiopia already has troops around Baidoa, ready to military confront the Islamists whenever they move on their next aim.
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