- Despite its often prophesised collapse, Zimbabwe is still standing - but experts have warned that planning for economic recovery by the international community is now critical.
Presenting a paper on the economic, political and security situation in Zimbabwe, Tony Hawkins, professor at the Graduate School of Management of the University of Zimbabwe, commented: "Eight years into economic decline that has cut GDP [gross domestic product] by 40 percent and halved income per head, Zimbabwe is still standing - highlighting the yawning chasm that separates economic decline and political change in Africa."
A recent report, 'After Mugabe: Applying post-conflict recovery lessons to Zimbabwe', published in the Harvard University Africa Policy Journal (APJ), underscores the need for the international community to "start preliminary planning now for responses to a transition in Zimbabwe", given the "war-like trauma experienced by the country and acute conditions today".
The report warns that "the southern African country is in a perilous state of decline and could face a transition at any time. Waiting until the day after the fall of [president] Robert Mugabe could be too late". President Mugabe's current term in office ends in 2008.
Presenting a wide range of steadily deterioration economic indicators - plummeting GDP growth, employment and real wages, and skyrocketing inflation - Hawkins stressed that "whatever the economic indicator, the numbers are uniformly dismal".
Until 2002, Zimbabwe was the second largest economy after South Africa in the 14-member Southern African Development Community; now only Malawi and tiny Swaziland and Lesotho are worse off.
The government has insisted the fault lies with western governments, determined to punish Zimbabwe's violent land reform programme with "sanctions". It has launched a series of recovery plans, but without an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and confidence from investors, none have managed to halt the slide.
"In political democracies, prolonged economic decline almost always sparks political change, through the ballot box or more radical confrontation on the streets," Hawkins remarked. But Mugabe has won every election from independence, although since 2000 the ballot results have been disputed.
Political change in Zimbabwe remained elusive, said Hawkins, "there is no 'tipping point'". The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, "deeply split and demoralised", has promised a campaign of protest but according to Hawkins, there is "no willingness to lead, let alone follow, a campaign of protest" which would be challenged by the security forces.
Economies eventually "pass the point of no return" and can only get back on their feet with "massive outside assistance", but inevitably, "the donor community comes to the country's rescue, often in 'too little, too late' mode," Hawkins said.
The APJ report thought change in Zimbabwe would come without much warning, given the "extremely fragile and ultimately unstable" situation held together by "Mugabe himself - [and] he is, nonetheless, 82 years old".
In a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe "a speedy and substantial international response will be necessary". Assuming the next government was "reform-minded enough" and donors were "willing to respond", the international community would have a "window of opportunity" to make a difference.
It suggested that the response not be limited to traditional development practices "but must be informed by recent post-conflict experience", establishing security and the rule of law, fostering political reconciliation, "legitimate" institutions of government, and encouraging economic recovery through the normalisation of relations with the international community.
Although Zimbabwe has not suffered internal armed conflict since independence, "the country nonetheless exhibits many extreme characteristics of a society in violent conflict", such as the breakdown of basic services and the mass flight of people and capital.
The report maintained that "no donor should provide assistance to the government at the present time, since recovery is impossible with the current leadership. But there is not time to waste in developing a multilateral framework to respond to the transition that is unavoidably coming to Harare".
Zimbabwe was fortunate to have South Africa, a large and relatively wealthy neighbour with a strong interest in fostering a rebound. Reportedly already sheltering an estimated two million Zimbabwean immigrants, South Africa's concern was that further deterioration in Zimbabwe would trigger a larger exodus.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday, South African President Thabo Mbeki said, "Zimbabweans have agreed to receive [UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan]. We all await the outcome of the intervention with regard to Zimbabwe. You need to normalise the relations between Zimbabwe and the rest of the world, so his [Annan's] interaction with the Zimbabwean government would be intended for those outcomes, including indicating what sort of assistance the UN would give."
The Zimbabwean authorities were quick to say the invitation had been revoked, reportedly fearing Annan's visit might be used to press Mugabe to step down.
"This is one of the things that the United Nations wants to get across: that assistance is being provided in an impartial way, without any association with a political position one way or the other. Our concern is to ensure that the most vulnerable, those whose livelihoods are most at risk for whatever reason, are being catered for," Chris Kaye, Regional Representative of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told IRIN.
The international community does have planning for Zimbabwe in place, drawn up in consultation with the Zimbabwe government, local NGO's and a number of UN agencies, to cover contingencies from epidemic outbreaks to a crack in the Kariba dam, but not including measures to rescue Zimbabwe from its present economic plight.
"The plans are not really that different from those in neighbouring countries. What is important is that we are prepared to deal with the consequences, whatever they may be, regardless of what the cause has been," Kaye said.
Transition in Zimbabwe would not be easy, said Hawkins. "Social and economic damage is not just long-term but permanent. It will take at least a dozen years to regain the living standards of the 1990s, and the price to be paid by future generations for the follies of their forefathers will be a heavy one."
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