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afrol News, 14 June - "While Zimbabwe has slipped off the radar for most policy makers and the media, its crisis is deepening," a new report concludes. There is a serious risk of a radicalisation of the two blocks if the party-to-party talks were not to resume, the report warns. A new report by the Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), dubbed 'Zimbabwe: What Next?' warns against believing that the Zimbabwean crisis slowly abating. On the contrary, the group was seeing several warning signs of a coming escalation. The party-to-party talks between the ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) initially made progress but collapsed in mid-May. "Now serious internal fissures threaten to radicalise the MDC," the report warns. Party leader Morgan Tsvangirai had begun to speak of switching to mass public protests within weeks if there is no movement toward new elections. - All indications are that this would draw a sharp response from the government and set off a cycle of much more serious domestic conflict, ICG deduces. "Zimbabwe's neighbours and the broader international community must pressure ZANU-PF to end the violence and return to the negotiating table. The objective should be some form of a transitional administration, which reforms the constitution and prepares for new elections." The crisis was already deepening, the report says. "ZANU-PF and the government are still systematically using violence to punish the MDC and civil society, and compel them to accept the flawed election results. Food is becoming scarcer and with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine." This, together with a radicalisation of the MDC, mass public protests and following ZANU-PF repression would send more refugees across borders and speed the economic decline. "In the absence of any realistic alternative, reviving the party-to-party talks is the most promising avenue for defusing the immediate crisis," ICG holds. The ICG's John Prendergast commented that "this is an example of a serious African issue gaining episodic high level Western attention and rhetoric, but no sustained policy follow-up. The policies of the EU and US continue to be all bark and no bite." South Africa and Nigeria have the most real leverage on Mugabe and "they need to become much more assertive in encouraging ZANU-PF to return to the negotiating table," the think-tank warns. "Both ZANU-PF and the MDC should be pressured to pursue genuine compromise." Other African states "should give full support" and make clear that President Mugabe will be isolated if he does not end the political violence and negotiate in good faith. The EU, US and other friends of Zimbabwe could also help. "They should toughen and extend targeted sanctions and make clear there will be no progress on NEPAD at the G-8 summit on 26-27 June unless African leaders put more pressure on ZANU-PF." This type of pressure indeed seems to be effective, having in mind the many calls by African leaders not to let Zimbabwe influence the NEPAD progress. Also Britain had an important role to play, the report holds. "The UK in particular should pledge anew to contribute significantly, in the context of an overall settlement, to land reform in Zimbabwe - which is a genuine issue however cynically it has been abused by the ruling party." John Prendergast said: "To avoid the likely degeneration into wider conflict, Zimbabwe's neighbours and the broader international community must pressure ZANU-PF to end the violence and return to the negotiating table. The objective should be some form of a transitional administration which reforms the constitution and prepares for new elections." Although the country's crisis seemed to be deepening, the report concludes that Zimbabwe was "not a lost cause." Conflict prevention based on democracy, rule-of-law, and a functioning economy could succeed, "but only if the key international actors, led by the Africans themselves, throw their full weight behind a genuine negotiating process before the grievances are taken into the streets."
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