Zimbabwe
"Action against Zimbabwe still possible"

afrol News, 5 March - The Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group yesterday called on "friends of Zimbabwe" to take a range of steps now, in the last days before the presidential election, "in order to maximise the possibility that democracy can succeed and the country be spared from a crisis that risks sparking widespread domestic unrest and regional instability."

- At ten minutes to Zimbabwe’s electoral midnight, it is still not too late for the international community to help achieve a democratic outcome, said Gareth Evans, President of the International Crisis Group (ICG). 

Less than a week remains until Zimbabwe’s electorate goes to the polls on 9-10 March to elect the next president. The signs that the process will be sufficiently free and fair to reflect the people's will are not good, ICG holds. The campaign, as ICG and many others have made clear, has been marked by substantial intimidation through deadly violence and related measures on behalf of the ruling ZANU-PF Party in support of the reelection of Robert Mugabe. 

International monitoring and observation efforts, particularly those of the European Union, whose delegation was forced to return home, have been substantially frustrated. President Mugabe and other leading figures have reacted defiantly to the warning sanctions that the EU and the United States imposed on them personally. The Commonwealth Summit has been unable to reach a consensus on meaningful action. 

- Despite the violence, intimidation and rigging, there is still a possibility that popular sentiment can be expressed through the ballot box this weekend, said John Prendergast, Co-Director of the Africa Program of the think-tank. “The key will be the size of voter turnout and the degree of influence that can be exerted to ensure a reasonably accurate count. And both these factors will be affected by the extent of international action in the remaining days.” 

- A number of measures are needed to show ordinary citizens of Zimbabwe and the country's political elite alike that the world cares and will not accept the results of a deeply flawed election, ICG holds. "They include:" 

"Broaden the targeted persanol sanctions"
After months of painful deliberation and unsuccessful efforts at dialogue, the EU last month imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on a handful of leading government officials. The US followed with similar travel restrictions. 

The ICG says; "Since the abuses that called forth these actions have continued, both the scope of the sanctions and the circle of powerful individuals targeted should be widened considerably in order to deliver a message that the international community is serious - a message intended both to give hope to individuals trying to make up their minds whether to go to the polls and to affect calculations within the ruling elite." 

The group makes the following suggestions:

• The US should match the EU by freezing the assets of those whose travel it restricts. 
  
• The EU and U.S. should publicly identify additional ZANU-PF officials whose travel will be restricted and assets frozen, depending upon their actions over the coming week. 
  
• The EU and U.S. should announce that the children of targeted officials who are studying in EU countries or the U.S. will have their visas revoked and be required to return home, depending upon how the election is conducted. 
  
• The EU and U.S. should state that they will support an investigation into the role of Zimbabwean and foreign-owned companies directly and culpably involved in the abuse of the ZANU-PF government’s economic power, with the promise that sanctions against leading shareholders and board members will rapidly follow if the election is stolen. 

"Intensify public diplomacy"
The ICG's advice is that influential global leaders, not only those from Western countries like President Bush and Prime Minister Blair, but also importantly Africans such as President Mbeki and President Obasanjo, and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan should use the air waves to reinforce the message that this election is critical for Zimbabwe and southern Africa and that the international community is deeply concerned. 

- Zimbabwe's citizens should be encouraged to cast secret ballots and the country's authorities left in no doubt that the results will not be recognised if the election is stolen, ICG says. 

"Intensify private diplomacy"
Neither South Africa, nor other member states of the Southern Africa Development Community, nor influential Nigeria have yet taken public measures, ICG notes. "They should at the very least now speak quietly but forcefully with President Mugabe and key ZANU-PF officials. They should say that while they have given them some understanding until now, they will not whitewash a stolen election." 

"Support local election monitors"
Such international monitors and observers who have managed to obtain permission to enter and remain in the country, including the limited Commonwealth delegation, and embassies from EU member countries, the US and elsewhere "should provide all possible assistance to local monitoring and observation efforts," ICG holds. 

- In particular, they should assist in disseminating local monitors’ reports in order to counter the potential of a whitewash by some of the official observer delegations favoured by the Zimbabwe government, the group states. 

"Support independent media"
With freedom of the press under heavy assault in the country, sympathetic members of the international community should expand their efforts during this week to support alternative means of providing information to Zimbabwe's citizens. A"n example of the kind of activity that needs such help is the alternative media project, using audiotapes and short-wave radios to disseminate information that the Zimbabwean Crisis Coordinating Committee, a network of local civil society organizations, has created." 

"Prepare post-election responses"
- Southern African states and the broader international community must be fully prepared for what the election brings, ICG says. "If citizens go to the polls and their votes are counted honestly, quick action will be needed to promote stabilisation of the collapsing economy and support the rebuilding of governing institutions and reestablishment of the rule of law."

If it however becomes clear that the election has been stolen, "additional measures to isolate an illegitimate government and pressure it to reverse course will need to be implemented immediately," the group states. "If significant political unrest, mass protest, or a major upsurge in violence follows the election, as could all too easily happen, the various components of the international community will need to have plans ready for an appropriately forceful response." 

- Regardless of which scenario unfolds, donor agencies should be ready to increase their assistance to civil society organizations as a key element in a longer-term democracy promotion strategy. The international friends of Zimbabwe should be as transparent as possible in preparing for every contingency as yet another way to demonstrate that they will stand with the country and its people, not only this week but after the election as well.

Sources: Based on ICG and afrol archives

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