|
afrol News, 28 October - Mixed news are reported from the drought-ridden Mozambican agriculture; an increase in acreages planted could lead to an improved food security situation next year. On the other side the upcoming rainy season - critical for food security - is foreseen to produce little rain. According to the last Mozambique report by the US agency Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net), the rainy season should commence soon in the southern parts of Mozambique, and parts of Manica Province. Farmers have prepared large acreages, but the quantity and allocation of the upcoming rains will be decisive for next year's harvests. The rainy season normally begins in the extreme south and parts of Manica Province during the month of October. As of the second dekad of October, satellite rainfall estimates did however not show significant amounts of rainfall or a clear start of the rainy season in either region. Only light rains were registered in Maputo in the first ten days of October. Also the northern part of country had registered scattered showers in the first 20 days of October. Newly updated information from the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) indicates that there is a nearly 100 percent probability that El Niño conditions will continue for the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003. A "moderate" magnitude of the event was foreseen, but "a strong impact was expected for some locations, in particular south-eastern Africa. El Niño years usually imply less-than-average rains in Mozambique. In order to minimize the potential impact of adverse climate conditions in the Southern region, the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture is already recommending that farmers engage in early planting; planting of drought resistant crops such as cassava, millet and sorghum and; planting short cycle maize and cowpea. For central region, the Ministry however recommends late planting for some districts and normal planting for others. It was also warned against potential red locust outbreaks. In the Northern region, farmers were also advised to plant drought resistant crops. The Ministry nevertheless is calculating with an increase in the total cultivated area and total productions for the upcoming agricultural season. First estimates are at a 3 percent increase in acreage of cereals and consequently a 10 percent increase in production. Given the last poor harvest, these estimates were not considered too optimistic. Meanwhile, a large number of Mozambicans remain victims of the drought and resulting poor harvests during the last season, which affected all Southern Africa. The World Food Program however expects to have sufficient food aid to provide a full basket of food to approximately 60 percent of the population in need, which is significantly more than in neighbouring countries. The current drought is still heavily influencing market prices of agricultural products in Mozambique, FEWS reports. Retail maize prices in Maputo had even "risen sharply in recent weeks and are now significantly higher than normal." Bean prices were also moving higher in Maputo. - When the effects of inflation are removed, Maputo prices are still higher than previous years, the FEWS report warns. Real prices in Nampula had however not reached last year's very high levels.
Sources: Based on FEWS and afrol archives
|
