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afrol News, 19 May - While the two rival president of Madagascar are moving on to a higher level of conflict, international pressure is now increasing to find a solution to the crisis. The international community however clings to the wage and flawed Dakar Agreement. Contrary to the Dakar Agreement, the followers of (ex-)President Didier Ratsiraka have fortified the blockade of the capital, Antananarivo, where President(ial candidate) Marc Ravalomanana is firmly imposed. The death toll in the starved city and its hinterland is steadily rising. Ravalomanana's Defence Minister, General Jules Mamizara, thus has announced the first roadblocks will be removed by force within a week. It therefore seems obvious that the Dakar Agreement - disrespected only days after its signature - is an empty piece of paper and that the protagonists of the Malagasy crisis are heading for an open conflict. Nevertheless, the Dakar Agreement is the international community's official answer to the conflict, being "the appropriate framework for the achievement of a solution," according to the European Union. Despite the weaknesses of the Agreement, the increasing numbers of international initiatives flock around it. Last, the European Parliament on Friday approved a resolution - after "an emergency debate" concerning Madagascar - centred on the Dakar Agreement. The Parliament called "on the European Commission, the Council and the Member States to ensure that the Dakar Agreement is respected, and to start the process of political dialogue under Article 8 of the Cotonou Partnership Agreement to prevent the partition of Madagascar." The central organ for conflict resolution of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) is to hold an emergency Summit on the Malagasy political crisis and bases its work on the Agreement. The UN Secretary-General and Security Council have thrown their weight behind the Agreement. The EU Presidency and a long list of individual states support it. Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade - the main protagonist of the Agreement with much personal prestige invested in its implementation - has taken the role as coordinator of the group of African countries serving as facilitators in the crisis. He is strongly urging Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana to return to Dakar to negotiate about the implementation of the deal. The 18 April Dakar Agreement between Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana in its simplicity seemed a brilliant piece of diplomacy. Ravalomanana was to renounce his self-proclaimed presidency and Ratsiraka was to lift the roadblocks. Then, the contested 16 December ballot was to be recounted. If Ravalomanana indeed had won outright - as he had claimed all the time - Ratsiraka would step down. If none of them had received over 50 percent of the ballot, Ratsiraka would remain President, a transitional government formed by them both would take power and a second poll round would have been organised under international supervision.
When the two returned to Madagascar, it was immediately noted that the short Dakar Agreement was indeed too simplistic. Ravalomanana stepped down, but Ratsiraka's followers demanded that also his government must step down - something not mentioned in the agreement. The roadblocks were therefore not lifted. Then, the composition of the Antananarivo-based High Constitutional Court (HCC) was shifted back to its original (before President Ratsiraka had filled it with his followers before the elections). The HCC recounted the votes; found Ravalomanana had won and declared him President. Ratsiraka's followers did not approve the HCC's composition and the result of its recount. Four out of six governors threaten to create a secessionist state in support of Ratsiraka. While the shortcomings of the Agreement have been demonstrated, Madagascar is falling deeper into a spiral of political violence. Over 60 people have now killed in this violence, there are reports of thousands of deaths due to the shortage of medicines and Madagascar's economy is crippled with over thirty textile factories closed and 65,000 workers laid off. Land-locked Antananarivo province is particularly suffering under the blockade and Ravalomanana's government now seems determined to put an end to it, if necessary, with force. "Within a fortnight, the situation will be critical in Antananarivo. That is why we are going to deal with the roadblock problem. We will first attack those which block the road leading to Mahajanga and on the road leading south, to Toliara," General Mamizara told the French news agency AFP. So far, military troops have mostly staid out of the conflict between the two rivals. Ravalomanana however seems to have a power advantage, with the entire para-military gendarmerie and most of the armed forces now supporting him. Making use of these forces however could mean the outbreak of a civil war on the island. Preparations for a civil war indeed seem to be going on. Reports from the four provinces planning to declare independence in favour of Ratsiraka indicate that ethnic hate campaigns already have been launched. The campaigns promote old hatred between the Merina people of central Madagascar, which conquered most of the island in the 19th century. The Malagasy people is a mix of Indonesians and African peoples, but the Merina mostly have a more Asian appearance than their coastal neighbours. Reports of attacks on Merina-looking people in the provinces are increasing. Meanwhile, Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka do not seem willing to continue the Dakar negotiations. Ravalomanana sees himself rightfully imposed as President and demands international recognition - he will only go to Dakar if he is invited as Madagascar's President. Ratsiraka has everything to loose by giving in to the negotiations as it seems clear that he has lost the poll or will loose it if there is a second one. He also seems unable to control his followers, which surely will not be able to stay in office under Ravalomanana.
Sources: Based on EU, Tiako i Madagasikara, press reports and afrol archives
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