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Misanet.com / IPS, 4 February - The west African sub-region already in turmoil from civil wars could be further destabilised by the resumption in rebel attacks in Guinea, observers say. Previously thought of as one of western Africa's few oases of peace, Guinea has been the target of rebel attacks during the past five months. Tensions remain high along Guinea's border with Liberia and Sierra Leone, where an armed rebellion has caused many casualties. According to official figures, more than 1,000 people have already died in these attacks. Several dozens more have disappeared. Fighting between the rebel and regular armies have caused property damage estimated at nearly 300 million dollars. An almost one-month lull in the fighting was broken last week by rebel incursions in Gueckedou district. At least a dozen people were killed. The identity of the rebels attacking Guinea is unclear. Recently, an unknown group calling themselves the Union of the Democratic Forces of Guinea (RFDG), claimed credit for the attacks. Mohamed Lamine Fofana, the movement's spokesperson, announced they had taken the town of Gueckedou, in southern Guinea, located approximately 600 kilometres from the capital, Conakry. But authorities in Conakry have accused the Unified Revolutionary Front (RUF), a rebel movement based in Sierra Leone which uses Liberia as a staging area, for the mischief. The RUF is supported by Liberia, whose chief-of-state, Charles Taylor, has been at loggerheads with Guinean President Lansana Conte ever since Conte sent in troops to stop Taylor's private army, the Scorpions, from taking Monrovia in the early 1990s. At the time, Taylor was battling the regime of Liberia's former leader, the late Samuel Doe. Facing pressure from nearby countries, as well as accusations of arms and diamond trafficking with Sierra Leone, Taylor recently promised to expel the RUF rebel commander, Sam Bockarie, from Liberia. "Liberia's announcement that it intends to expel RUF rebels, and their warlord, Sam Bockarie, from the country is nothing more than just talk. Charles Taylor supports, and will continue to support, Guinea's attackers," declared Sekou Decazy Camara, a deputy from Guinea's ruling Unity and Progress Party (PUP). According to Sekou Decazy, nationals from several African countries are represented among the rebels attacking Guinea. "There are RUF members from Sierra Leone, Liberians, and Burkinabes supported by that country's President Blaise Campaore. Furthermore, we've learned that some of the rebels have been trained in Libya," he said. The Guinean opposition believes that by supporting the RUF, Liberia is attempting to teach Guinea a lesson for having served as a base camp for a Liberian rebel faction known as Ulimo. "In 1990, we pointed out to the government the risks of training Ulimo troops in Guinea, or more precisely, in Kankan, a town about 800 kilometres from Conakry. We pointed out how it could backfire on us, which is exactly what has happened," stated Ba Mamadou, the leader of the Union for Progress and Renewal. - In my opinion, disorder in the country is going to be unavoidable in the days to come. The army might take advantage of the situation to stage a coup, as it has done before. Volunteers, who have received guns but have never been paid, could revolt. Or Ulimo could make problems for us if we try to get rid of them now. Disorder in Guinea could have repercussions for the entire subregion. Guinea is surrounded by countries which have suffered internal rebellions and military take-overs. Senegal, which borders Guinea on the north, continues to have difficulties maintaining its southern border, which is controlled by rebel separatists from the southern Casamance region. Neighbouring Guinea-Bissau had its rebellion in 1998, which saw stiff opposition from both the Guinean and Senegalese armies. The rebellion ultimately failed. And although the leader of that revolt, Guinea-Bissau Brigadier General Ansumane Mane has died, the country has not quite recovered from the attempt. Mane's partisans continue to represent a threat to the Guinean president, who provided assistance to Guinea-Bissau's former president Nino Vieira when he was under attack. Liberia has not yet recovered from the aftermath of a brutal civil war. Taylor, accused as a war criminal for the deaths of more than 150,000 people, is having difficulty establishing credibility with the international community. A recent United Nations report accuses him of arms and diamond trafficking. Almost completely isolated from the rest of the world, the Monrovia regime is sustained by the compensation it receives from continuing to support unrest in Sierra Leone. It provides a haven to RUF leaders and serves as a base camp for their troops, which control most of Sierra Leone's diamond-producing regions. The relationship between Monrovia and Conakry reached a new low on Jan. 24 when Liberia recalled its ambassador to Conakry. Among Monrovia's accusations, all of which Conakry flatly denies, was the "presence of Liberian dissidents in Guinea". Sierra Leone, which borders Guinea on the south, also remains unstable. Power there is shared between the administration of President Tejan Kabbah and the RUF rebels who control most of the country. A United Nations expeditionary corps in the country is still trying to track down RUF's tangled diamond trafficking network, which nets it several million dollars a year. West Africa could easily become the next African regional conflagration if Guinea succumbs to the armed conflicts, personal enmities, and narrow proprietary interests racking the area. Guineans' last best hope is that ECOMOG west African intervention troops will be sent in. During a recent visit to Conakry, the executive secretary of the West African States Economic Community (WASEC), Guinean Lansana Kouyate, reiterated the commitment of his institution to sending ECOMOG troops to secure the border between Guinea and Liberia and Sierra Leone. By Saliou Samb, IPS
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